baseball playoffs

At the start of the 21st century, marquee sports games were as rare to see on cable television as a satisfied George Steinbrenner.

Take a look at America's television sets today. The event that ushered in prime-time sports bliss, ratings blockbuster Monday Night Football, can be found on cable giant ESPN. Time Warner's TNT hosts National Basketball Association conference finals along with the league's All-Star Game.

Story continues below ↓
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
advertisement


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next month, another broadcast-television staple will jump to cable. For the first time, a baseball league championship series � the National League pennant match up � will be showcased on a cable channel, Time Warner's TBS, while the American League Championship Series will be broadcast by over-the-air network Fox.

About 40 percent of America's 112 million households with televisions still do not subscribe to cable, according to SNL Kagan Research. Still, experts believe the trend of top sports programming heading to cable will not be stopped. After all, cable networks can count on two income streams (advertising revenue and fees paid by service providers such as Comcast) to cover massive sports rights contracts, whereas the old-time free networks can only bring in cash from advertising.

Andy Zimbalist, a Smith College professor who has authored a number of books on the business of baseball, believes the National League playoffs will incur a small ratings hit by appearing on cable. But he adds MLB � which gets a reported $45 million annually from TBS, who will also televise all four division-series games through 2013 and a national game of the week starting in 2008 � set the rights fees accordingly, with fewer viewers a possibility.

"The issue is, will it hurt ratings enough to damage the fan base going forward?" Zimbalist asked. "My hunch is no. Most sports fans have cable these days."

Ratings are heavily influenced by the markets involved, and the division races seem to be shaking out in TBS' favor. Big-market teams New York, Boston and Los Angeles have locked up playoff berths in the American League, while Chicago and Philadelphia should draw scads of viewers in the National League.

Even if baseball playoff ratings fall, TBS will still attract tens of millions of 18-49-year-old males coveted by advertisers during its coverage, which could exceed two dozen games this fall, depending on the length of each series. And there's no doubt TBS � which has broadcast Atlanta Braves' games throughout the country for 30 years, but is about to show its last one nationally � is thrilled to be in the postseason ballgame.

Turner Sports President David Levy said his group looked at the TNT model with the NBA, which began almost 20 years ago, and how the playoff ratings hit helped the network grow, boosting other shows in the process. Now, TBS can apply the tested theory to baseball.

"We basically own postseason basketball for the month of May," Levy said, referring to the 40 Games in 40 Nights package. "Now, we'll basically own October, if you will."

Since securing the playoff contract last year, TBS has hired Hall-of-Famers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. ― the former for the booth and the latter for the studio ― and will also count on well-known broadcasters Chip Caray and Steve Stone to entice viewers. Unique camera angles it posts on MLB.com will draw fans.

Because Americans aren't used to turning to TBS for playoff baseball, Turner has launched an ad campaign fronted by Bon Jovi, who sings "I Love This Town" amid baseball clips, in about 6,500 movie theatres across the country. Billboards, print and radio ads with the same theme are also getting the word out on the playoffs, which begin Wednesday.

Will the World Series be on cable once the next round of TV talks are completed around 2013? Neither Zimbalist nor Levy were willing to guess. But there's no doubt the once-solid line between free TV and cable when it comes to the biggest sports games is blurring.

Said Levy: "I know that my son, who's 15, doesn't know the difference between broadcast and cable. It's television. You don't say 'I watched broadcast TV last night.' You talk about watching 'The Office,' the Grammys, the Emmys. It's about programming."

And these days on television, the cable networks are, more and more, presenting the top-notch sports programming.
There has been considerable debate about the role of momentum in sports. In a landmark study, Thomas Gilovich and several colleagues provided evidence that the "hot hand" in basketball was nothing more than a myth. Since then, there has been considerable research suggesting that many of the old saws about sports are untrue, and a movement toward more enlightened analysis has emerged, best exemplified in Michael Lewis' book Moneyball.

In this weekend's Wall Street Journal, Allen St. John wonders about the idea of "momentum" heading into baseball's post-season.

He writes that "while much is often made about late-season momentum as a harbinger of playoff success, in reality the relationship between the two is small... The playoffs are truly a second season. Only once since the advent of the wild card has the team with the best regular-season mark (the 1998 Yankees) won the World Series."

So if your favorite team has limped into the post-season, don't worry about it! Occasionally, there are legitimate reasons to fret over lost momentum. If a team has experienced a disastrous September because of injuries to its top starters, that will be a problem heading into the post-season -- not because of momentum, but because the pitchers are likely to remain unavailable!

I would argue that investors should look at the stock market the same way. Rather than buying into the idea of "momentum" in the stock market (I've seen no evidence that such a phenomenon really exists), think about factors that actually effect the business. Leave the cliches about "fighting the tape" and "moving averages" to the old wives.
Executives at Turner Sports have worked for a year to eliminate as many variables as possible from their network's debut carrying Major League Baseball's playoffs next week. But no planning could account for the unprecedented seven-team pileup at the top of the National League, which has television and baseball executives doing their own version of a "Who's on First?" routine just to keep all the scenarios straight.

Since the World Series debuted in 1903, the majors have never seen a three-way tie among playoff contenders heading into the postseason. But until yesterday, a five-way tie was still possible this October. Things are so uncertain, Arizona, the team that entered yesterday with the NL's best record, still could miss the playoffs entirely. (The four American League playoff teams are set, with playoff games also starting Wednesday on Turner's TBS network, a subsidiary of Time Warner Inc.)

"It's going to be havoc. But I've got reservations for every city," says Tony Gwynn, the newly minted Hall of Famer who is calling games for Turner this fall.

Hotels are just one of dozens of logistical knots Jeff Behnke, the network's executive producer, must untangle in a short time. Every day for the past two weeks, he has convened what he calls the "High Noon Hot Sheet," a meeting meant to adjust to the latest turns in the topsy-turvy standings. Technicians, engineers, producers, directors, salespeople, public-relations executives and marketers all participate.

Mr. Behnke says he is prepared to send three production teams on Sunday, the last day of baseball's regular season, to different cities for potential Monday games. Each 65-person team, only half of whose members are local to each city, could arrive only to find their city isn't hosting a game. Turner is also hustling to round up enough production trucks. For instance, the network found one in San Diego, a potential play-in site, that was already in the area for a Sunday game hosted by the National Football League's San Diego Chargers. Mr. Behnke says the network doesn't even know at what time the potential games might start.

"We have no preconceptions that it's going to be perfect for us, but we have a very good plan in place," says Mr. Behnke.

His network did go through a dress rehearsal of sorts last fall, holding daily planning meetings to imagine how it might handle a potential three-way tie in the National League Central that never materialized. Turner veterans will also bank on their experience airing National Basketball Association games for the past 24 years. Turner survived one night in the 2003 NBA playoffs when it aired four potentially series-ending games, unaware of where its crews would head the next day.

Until last night when the Colorado Rockies beat the Los Angeles Dodgers, a five-way tie for the best record in the National League was still possible, involving the Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Rockies. As of today, a four-way tie is the most extreme possibility, with multiple potential combinations of the five teams.

Further complicating matters for Turner, the race between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central crown could create yet another bonus game to be played before the start of the Division Series.

The National League's seemingly endless permutations have created an extra set of headaches at MLB headquarters in New York, too. Schedulers there must make sure American League teams don't idle too long if a battle royal plays out in the National League. But Bob DuPuy, the MLB president and chief operating officer, calls that an easy trade-off to make in exchange for the extra publicity.

Still, even Mr. DuPuy tripped up on all the ins and outs of a five-way tie. "You've really messed up my afternoon," he joked.